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Enhancement of National Capacities in the Application of Simulation Models for the Assessment of Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Food and Agricultural Production
(2005-CRP01-CMY)

1. Dr. Arshad Muhammad Khan, Executive Director,
   • Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC),
     Saudi-Pak Tower (first floor), 61/A, Jinnah Avenue,
     P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad, Pakistan
     Phone: +92-51-9219785; +92-51-2800245
     Fax: +92-51-9219787
     Email: gcisc@comsats.net.pk
     
2. Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General,
   • Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD),
     P.O. Box No. 1214, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan
     Phone: +92-51-9257314
     Fax: +92-51-4434588
     Email: qamarc@hotmail.com

The project helped advance the CC research capacity of the beneficiary countries by organizing 6 regional workshops involving more than 160 participants (Table 1) and by facilitating the acquisition, implementation, calibration and validation of a number of simulation models (Table 2) covering RCM, WSM and CSM aspects. These models now form the backbone of the CC research activities in these countries. Besides publishing some of the work (3 papers in international journals, 2 in national journals; 4 submitted to international journals) and presenting it at conferences (40 presentations at international conferences, 11 at national conferences), 21 technical reports were prepared (Table 3); these were then undergoing review by relevant national experts.

Salient features of the research findings include

1. CC trends in various parts of Nepal and Pakistan over the last 3 to 5 decades derived from the available meteorological data;
2. Projections to the year 2100 for changes in average climatological parameters for Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, each, and for large sub-regions of Pakistan, based on the coarse resolution (about 300 km X 300 km) outputs of an ensemble of 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) corresponding to A2 and A1B scenarios of IPCC;
3. Results of the dynamic downscaling of HadAM3P GCM output for A2 scenario by PRECIS (Hadley Centre’s RCM), providing high resolution (50 km X 50 km) CC scenarios for South Asia;
4. Assessed impacts of projected CC on the yields of wheat, rice and maize crops in different agro-climatic zones of Nepal and Pakistan;
5. Preliminary results of the work being done in Nepal and Pakistan on assessing the impacts of CC on annual and seasonal flows of their main rivers; and
6. Preliminary findings from the ongoing work on adaptation measures and coping mechanisms to counter negative impacts of CC in the Agriculture and water sectors.

Regional Workshops organised under the project

Sr. No.	Workshop Theme	Place and Dates	Participants*
1	Training in Regional Climate Modelling	Islamabad, Pakistan 16 – 27 Feb., 2004	BD: 6 ; Nep: 6;Pak: 14
2	Training in Crop Simulation Modelling	Chiang Mai, Thailand 28 June – 9 July 2004	BD: 6; Nep: 6
3	Training in Watershed Simulation Modelling	Islamabad, Pakistan 7 – 18 March 2005	BD: 5; Nep: 5
4	Training in Regional Climate Scenario Development	Kathmandu, Nepal 15 – 26 Aug., 2005	BD: 4; Nep: 12
5	Review of Research Results	Kathmandu, Nepal 19 – 23 June 2007	Nep: 10
6	Harmonization of Research Results	Islamabad, Pakistan 21 – 25 Aug., 2007	Nep: 3

* BD: Bangladesh; Nep: Nepal; Pak: Pakistan

Simulation Models Implemented and Being Used

Model Type	Acronym	Model Developer
Regional Climate Models	RegCM3	AS-ICTP , Italy
	PRECIS	Hadley Centre, UK
Watershed Models	DHSVM	Univ. of Washington , USA
	UBC	Univ. of British Columbia , Canada
	HEC-HMS	US Army Corps of Engineers
	WatBal	D.N. Yates, Int. J. Water Res. Dev., Vol. 12, p. 121, 1996
	HFAM	Crawford/ Hydrocomp Inc., USA
	BTOPMC	Univ. of Yamanashi , Japan
Crop Simulation Models	DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)	Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA
	CERES (for cereals)
	CROPGRO (for grain legumes)
	CROPSIM (for root crops)
	Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)

1. Droughts in Pakistan: Causes, Impacts and Remedial Measures, Pervaiz Amir and M. Munir Sheikh, Chapter 7, pp. 78-94 in the Book: Climate and water Resources in South Asia: Vulnerability and Adaptation, Edited by Amir Muhammad, M. Monirul Qader Mirza and Bonnie A. Stewart, Asianics Agro Dev. International / APN / START / HIWP, 2006.

NEPAL

NDR-1	Climate Profile and Observed Climate Change and Climate Variability in Nepal.
NDR-2	Climate Change Scenarios for South Asia and Central Himalayan region based on GCM Ensemble.
NDR-3	Climate Change Scenarios for Nepal based on Regional Climate Model RegCM3.
NDR-4	Climatic Changes: Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources of Nepal.
NDR-5	Climate Change and Agriculture in Nepal