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Monsoon Variability & Predictability


Natural variability of monsoon rains causes increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, heavy monsoonal rains, and droughts etc. Huge variations are encountered in the rainfall amount, which can have far reaching impacts on the economy of the country.

The precise predictability of monsoon rains has now become a need and an economically important exercise, and is necessary for meeting the country’s requirements regarding water resources, agriculture and for other purposes.

Pakistan basically is an agrarian based country and agriculture contributes around a quarter to the country’s GDP. Agricultural economy, however, is closely linked to the erratic behavior of monsoon rains over Pakistan.

The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. Dominant sources of water are brought by these monsoon rains. 

GCISC References:

Adnan, M., Rehman, N., Ali, S., Mehmood, S., Mir, K. A., Khan, A. A. and Khalid, B. (2017), Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure. Weather, 72:76-84. doi:10.1002/wea.2784.

Khan, F. & Shaukat Ali. (2017).Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models by using Pattern and Dependent Structure in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan. Journal of  Weather (Accepted)

  • 4 April, 2024

The GCISC extends a warm welcome to the Honorable Ms. Romina Khurshid in her new role as the coordinator to the Prime Minister on Climate Change and Environmental Coordination. We are enthusiastic about your dedication to addressing climate change challenges and eagerly anticipate working with your kind support.

  • 24 March, 2024

Mr. Aizaz A. Dar's appointment as Secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination is welcomed by the Centre. He will also serve as Vice-Chair of the Board of Governors of GCISC. It is hoped that under his dynamic leadership, GCISC will flourish and continue to provide science-based insights for policymaking and climate action.

GCISC and GIZ jointly organize a workshop to launch National and Provincial Climate Risk Profiles and CLimate Information Resource (CIR) Portal under SAR Project at Ramada Hotel on March 20, 2024.