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Monsoon Variability & Predictability


Introduction:

Natural variability of monsoon rains causes increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, heavy monsoonal rains, and droughts etc. Huge variations are encountered in the rainfall amount, which can have far reaching impacts on the economy of the country.

The precise predictability of monsoon rains has now become a need and an economically important exercise, and is necessary for meeting the country’s requirements regarding water resources, agriculture and for other purposes.

Pakistan basically is an agrarian based country and agriculture contributes around a quarter to the country’s GDP. Agricultural economy, however, is closely linked to the erratic behavior of monsoon rains over Pakistan.

The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. Dominant sources of water are brought by these monsoon rains. 

GCISC References:

Adnan, M., Rehman, N., Ali, S., Mehmood, S., Mir, K. A., Khan, A. A. and Khalid, B. (2017), Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure. Weather, 72:76-84. doi:10.1002/wea.2784.

Khan, F. & Shaukat Ali. (2017).Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models by using Pattern and Dependent Structure in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan. Journal of  Weather (Accepted)

 
 
News
 Challenging job opportunities at Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Government of Pakistan.

 International Science-Policy Conference on Climate Change (SPCCC), December 18-20, 2017 @ ISLAMABAD

 A seminar will be held on "Estimating Glacier Melt Rates in the Himalayas" in GCISC, Islamabad, on July 04, 2017 10:00AM by Ms. Jewell Lund, Graduate Student, University of Utah, USA

 A seminar will be held on "Role of Urban Environmental Gradients in Dengue Transmission in Pakistan" in GCISC, Islamabad, on July 03, 2017 02:00PM by Dr. Bushra Khalid, Postdoc fellow in IIASA, Austria

 Dr.Tariq Banuri join GCISC as Executive Director

 A third of the world now faces deadly heatwaves as result of climate change (www.theguardian.com June 19, 2017)

 Trump believes in climate change, says US Ambassador (newsweekpakistan.com June 05, 2017)

 UNDP expresses readiness to help Pakistan cope with adverse impact of climate change(radio.gov.pk June 13, 2017)

 World leaders to press Trump on climate change at G20 meeting (dailynews.com June 19, 2017)

 PM approves launching of 'Green Pakistan Programme' to fight climate change (radio.gov.pk June 19, 2017)