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Monsoon Variability & Predictability


Natural variability of monsoon rains causes increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, heavy monsoonal rains, and droughts etc. Huge variations are encountered in the rainfall amount, which can have far reaching impacts on the economy of the country.

The precise predictability of monsoon rains has now become a need and an economically important exercise, and is necessary for meeting the country’s requirements regarding water resources, agriculture and for other purposes.

Pakistan basically is an agrarian based country and agriculture contributes around a quarter to the country’s GDP. Agricultural economy, however, is closely linked to the erratic behavior of monsoon rains over Pakistan.

The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. Dominant sources of water are brought by these monsoon rains. 

GCISC References:

Adnan, M., Rehman, N., Ali, S., Mehmood, S., Mir, K. A., Khan, A. A. and Khalid, B. (2017), Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure. Weather, 72:76-84. doi:10.1002/wea.2784.

Khan, F. & Shaukat Ali. (2017).Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models by using Pattern and Dependent Structure in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan. Journal of  Weather (Accepted)


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