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Monsoon Variability & Predictability


Introduction:

Natural variability of monsoon rains causes increase in frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological disasters such as floods, heavy monsoonal rains, and droughts etc. Huge variations are encountered in the rainfall amount, which can have far reaching impacts on the economy of the country.

The precise predictability of monsoon rains has now become a need and an economically important exercise, and is necessary for meeting the country’s requirements regarding water resources, agriculture and for other purposes.

Pakistan basically is an agrarian based country and agriculture contributes around a quarter to the country’s GDP. Agricultural economy, however, is closely linked to the erratic behavior of monsoon rains over Pakistan.

The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. Dominant sources of water are brought by these monsoon rains. 

GCISC References:

Adnan, M., Rehman, N., Ali, S., Mehmood, S., Mir, K. A., Khan, A. A. and Khalid, B. (2017), Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure. Weather, 72:76-84. doi:10.1002/wea.2784.

Khan, F. & Shaukat Ali. (2017).Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models by using Pattern and Dependent Structure in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan. Journal of  Weather (Accepted)

 
 
  • April 19, 2022

Congratulations!
We warmly welcome Ms. Sherry Rehman, Minister for Climate Change as the Chair of the GCISC’s Board of Governors and sincerely hope that her dynamic leadership will provide impetus to the Centre’s research efforts in making the country climate resilient.

GCISC in collaboration with GIZ and CITEPA organized National and Provincial Training Workshops on “M &E Platform Adaptation Tracking (Agriculture) in Pakistan” at Islamabad Hotel, Islamabad on 23-26 November 2021, Lexus Hotel, Lahore on 29-30 November 2021 and PC Hotel, Karachi on 2-3 December 2021.

GCISC Organized a workshop on "Monsoon Variability and Extremes in a Changing Climate" from October 12-14, 2021 at Margalla Hotel, Islamabad
Detailed Flyer

  • February 08, 2021

SAPM on Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam inaugurated three inter-linked Nature Parks spreading over 18,000 acres of Parera, Ara...